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Geopolitical tensions, coupled with ASML's release of underwhelming performance guidance, led to a plunge in technology and chip stocks, dragging the Nasdaq down 2.8%, with the Nasdaq 100 falling nearly 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its six-day winning streak to a new high, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index ended its five-day rally, with the overall stock index significantly declining, but mainly concentrated in the technology, communication, and non-essential consumer goods sectors, while the essential consumer goods, energy, and financial sectors performed relatively well.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the time for a rate cut is drawing nearer. New York Fed President Williams, who has a permanent vote on the FOMC and is known as the "third in command" at the Fed, indicated that the Fed is close to a rate cut but is not yet ready to do so. Both of them, along with Richmond Fed President Barkin, mentioned that inflation data in recent months has been encouraging, but "more" evidence is needed to prove that inflation is persistently slowing down.

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Waller's slightly hawkish remarks did not have a significant impact on the market, which has fully priced in a rate cut in September. In the bond market, prior to the US stock market opening, US Treasury yields rose due to better-than-expected data on new housing starts and industrial output in June. However, as US stocks were sold off, a large influx of funds into the bond market caused US Treasury yields to fall from their highs, with a slight rebound at the end of the day.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar's weakness intensified, falling to its lowest level since March. The Japanese yen rose 1.4% against the US dollar to 156.2, reaching a new high since June 12, prompting market speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene again to buy yen. Commodity prices varied. US crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, coupled with a weaker dollar, leading to a 2.5% surge in US oil prices. The triple factors of rate cut benefits, safe-haven sentiment, and central bank gold purchases drove gold prices to test new highs during the session, with spot gold closing down 0.4% from its historical high, and spot silver plummeting nearly 4%.

In other data, US mortgage rates fell to 6.87%, the lowest since early March, also boosting bets on a rate cut in September. The Fed's Beige Book indicated that due to the US election, domestic politics, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation, the US economic growth rate is expected to slow down in the next six months.

The Dow hit a new high, while the Nasdaq plummeted 2.8%, with technology stocks collectively diving, Nvidia leading the tech stocks with a drop of over 6.5%, and ASML falling nearly 13%, temporarily halting trading.

On Wednesday, July 17th, the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell nearly 2.9%, breaking through the 18,000-point mark; the S&P 500 index fell nearly 1.5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is a collection of blue-chip stocks, continued to rise, reaching a high of nearly 0.7% or 267 points, breaking through 41,000 points, and closing at a historical high; the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose more than 0.6% at the beginning of the day, but fell more than 1.2% at its lowest point; the Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 2.94%.

As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its six-day winning streak to a historical high, while the rest of the major US stock indices fell, with the Nasdaq falling 2.77%, and the Nasdaq 100, which fell 2.94%, both recording the largest single-day drop since December 2022. The S&P 500 index and the Russell 2000 small-cap index both fell more than 1%, and the regional bank index rose 1.58% and continued its seven-day winning streak to the highest level in over a year:

The S&P 500 index closed down 78.93 points, or 1.39%, at 5,588.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 243.60 points, or 0.59%, at 41,198.08. The Nasdaq closed down 512.41 points, or 2.77%, at 17,996.92.

The Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.94%; the NASDAQ Technology Market Value-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, fell 4.29%; the Russell 2000 small-cap index closed down 1.06%; the VIX fear index closed up 9.70% at 14.47, approaching the May 2nd peak of 16.09.The KBW Bank Index on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange closed up 0.61%, at 114.67 points. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Banking Index closed up 1.58%, at 114.29 points.

The NASDAQ 100 plummeted, marking the largest single-day decline since December 2022.

Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the Information Technology/Technology sector closed down 3.72%, Telecommunications fell 2.09%, Consumer Discretionary fell 1.8%, Industrials fell 1.3%, while Financials rose 0.85%, Energy rose 1.08%, and Consumer Staples rose 1.43%.

In terms of investment research strategy, the tech giants' 18-month winning streak has come to a halt, and Wall Street's focus is shifting away from mega-cap stocks to those AI concept stocks that have relatively lagged in gains, such as Intel, AMD, and IBM. These laggards have lower valuations and face fewer challenges in terms of market sentiment and profit expectations, indicating that they may be in a favorable position for the remainder of 2024. These three companies have outperformed the market in the past month, while AI favorite Nvidia has experienced a slight decline during the same period.

Goldman Sachs strategist Rubner stated that the S&P 500 has no choice but to decline next. He warned against buying the dip as the U.S. stock market correction has only just begun. The reason is that data since 1928 suggests that July 17th might be the peak of the S&P 500's return rate, not to mention that August is typically the worst month for outflows from passive stock funds and mutual funds. Moreover, seasonal weakness, already stretched positions, and the fact that all positive news (including interest rate cuts, the Trump trade, strong earnings reports) has been digested, puts the U.S. stock market on the brink of a summer adjustment.

The "Tech Seven Sisters" have all suffered, with the seven giants losing a staggering $1.1 trillion in market value over the past five days. Nvidia led the decline with a 6.64% drop, with its market value falling below $3 trillion to maintain third place; Tesla fell 3.14%; Apple fell 2.53%, with a market value of $3.51 trillion to remain in first place; Microsoft fell 1.33%; Google A fell 1.58%; Amazon fell 2.64%; "Metaverse" Meta fell 5.68%.

Chip stocks almost entirely collapsed, with ASML dragging the chip index down by more than 6.8%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.81%; the industry ETF SOXX fell 7.11%; the Nvidia double long ETF fell 13.37%; ASML ADR fell 12.74%, with Applied Materials, AMD, Marvell Technology, and Lam Research also falling more than 10%, KLA fell 9.85%, Arm Holdings fell 9.55%; Qualcomm fell 8.61%, TSMC's U.S. shares fell 7.98%, Broadcom fell 7.91%, Micron Technology fell 6.27%, while Intel rose 0.35%.

AI concept stocks generally fell. "Nvidia concept stocks" SoundHound fell more than 5.8%, Bullfrog AI fell 11.26%, BigBear.ai fell 7.23%, Super Micro Computer fell 6.92%, Dell fell 6.77%, CrowdStrike fell 3.82%, Oracle fell 2.35%, Snowflake fell 0.81%.

In terms of news:

Tesla: Barclays raised its target price from $180 to $225. "Wooden Sister" Cathie Wood stated that Tesla's construction of an autonomous driving taxi platform will cause the stock price to soar tenfold. The autonomous driving taxi ecosystem is an "$8 trillion to $10 trillion global revenue opportunity," and platform providers including Tesla could capture up to half of it. Investors are beginning to value Tesla not solely as an electric vehicle manufacturer but are starting to factor in some potential in the autonomous driving taxi sector.Qualcomm: HSBC downgrades Qualcomm's rating from Buy to Hold, with a target price of $200.

Lithography giant ASML: The company's stock was temporarily suspended during trading. ASML announced its Q2 results, with both profit and sales exceeding expectations. The booming demand for AI chips drove Q2 orders to €5.57 billion, far exceeding the expected €4.41 billion. ASML still expects the industry to continue recovering in the second half of the year, but the company's outlook for Q3 is lower than expected, with net sales forecasted to be between €6.7 billion and €7.3 billion, while the market expected €7.46 billion.

Geopolitical tensions escalate. Despite the Q2 report beating expectations due to AI demand, ASML's ADR plummeted to a halt during trading, closing down 12.74%, leading to a significant drop in global chip stocks.

Research institution TrendForce's latest report indicates that the revenue growth contribution of AI servers is significantly higher than that of general servers. It estimates that the global value of AI servers will reach $187 billion in 2024, accounting for about 65% of the server market share.

United Airlines (UAL): United Airlines' Q2 revenue was roughly in line with expectations, with a reduced forecast for full-year capital expenditure. The company expects adjusted EPS for Q3 to be between $2.75 and $2.35, below analysts' expectations of $3.38, causing the stock to fall about 5% after hours.

Chinese concept stocks fell collectively. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 1.15%; the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 2.24%; the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell by 1.86%.

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, NIO fell by 6.33%, Zeekr fell by 4.69%, XPeng fell by 3.91%, Bilibili fell by 3.54%, Pinduoduo fell by 2.96%, Li Auto fell by 2.82%, Baidu fell by 2.82%, Tencent Holdings (ADR) fell by 2.78%, Alibaba fell by 1.71%, JD.com fell by 0.81%, and NetEase fell by 0.03%.

In terms of more volatile stocks:

Bitcoin mining company Cipher Mining opened high and then fell, erasing its losses. According to media reports, as demand for data centers grows, the Bitcoin mining industry has become a target for acquisition. After receiving acquisition interest, the company is considering a sale.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly: Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche's early trial results for an oral weight loss drug are optimistic. The stock prices of weight loss "duopoly" Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly fell by 3.87% and 3.82% respectively, while Roche (ADR) rose by 7.53%.Gold and silver mining stocks generally followed the downturn of the US tech sector, with Avino Silver & Gold closing down over 8%, First Majestic falling by about 4.7%, Harmony Gold dropping by over 3.9%, Cordoba Mining falling by over 3.8%, Pan American Silver falling by over 2.5%, Hecla Mining falling by about 2.4%, Barrick Gold falling by over 1.9%, while Gold Fields closed up by over 0.9%.

Digital currency concept stocks generally closed lower, with Applied Digital falling by 8.96%, "big Bitcoin holder" MicroStrategy (MSTR) falling by over 4.4%, the 2x leveraged Bitcoin ETF falling by over 1.9%, the popular brokerage Robinhood falling by over 1.8%, and various US spot Bitcoin ETFs like ARKB falling by 1.08% to 0.84%, while Canaan Inc. rose by 0.83%, and the 2x inverse Bitcoin ETF rose by 1.79%.

European stocks fell for three consecutive days:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down by 0.48%, at 514.83 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down by 1.14%, at 4891.46 points.

The German DAX 30 index closed down by 0.44%; the French CAC 40 index closed down by 0.12%; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 0.03%; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.28%; the Spanish IBEX 35 index rose by 0.13%.

European semiconductor stocks plummeted, with ASML Holding (ASML) closing down by 10.93%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2020, while wafer equipment manufacturer ASM International also fell by 7.65%, and BE Semiconductor Industries fell by 7.13%.

US stock market funds flowed into the bond market, with US Treasury yields showing mixed movements, and expectations for a UK rate cut receding, leading to a general increase in UK bond yields.

At the end of the day, the more policy-sensitive two-year US Treasury yield rose by 1.65 basis points, to 4.4337%, trading within the range of 4.4235%-4.4759% throughout the day, showing a pattern of rising and then falling. The US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell by 0.78 basis points, to 4.1498%, trading within the range of 4.1943%-4.1421%.

The benchmark 10-year German bund yield fell by 0.6 basis points at the close, to 2.421%, with a daily fluctuation of less than 4.0 basis points. The two-year German bund yield rose by 1.2 basis points, to 2.775%, trading within the range of 2.748%-2.794%.

The French 10-year government bond yield fell by 0.6 basis points, the Italian 10-year government bond yield rose by 1.8 basis points, the Spanish 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points, and the Greek 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points. The UK 10-year government bond yield rose by 2.7 basis points, to 4.076%.The UK inflation rate remained steady at the Bank of England's 2% target level in June, but the service sector inflation rate stayed at 5.7%, higher than the level predicted by the Bank of England in its last forecast. These figures may intensify the Bank of England's concerns that although inflation has returned to the target level, it may not remain at this level for the long term.

Analysts believe that the UK inflation rate could rise to a high of 3% before the end of the year. Traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England in August, and the pound-to-dollar exchange rate has broken through 1.30 for the first time in a year. UK government bond prices have fallen, and the yield on the 2-year note has returned to above 4%.

US crude oil inventories plummeted, causing a 2.5% surge in US oil prices, moving away from a one-month low. Investors are downplaying the demand for cooling in the summer, and US natural gas fell by 7%.

A weaker dollar supported the rebound in oil prices, ending a three-day losing streak. WTI crude oil futures for August closed up $2.09, a gain of over 2.52%, at $82.85 a barrel, moving away from the lowest closing position since June 17. Brent crude oil futures for September closed up $1.35, a gain of over 1.61%, at $85.08 a barrel, also moving away from the lowest closing position since June 17.

Both US and Brent crude oil prices rose throughout the day, reaching a daily high at the end of the session, with US oil prices rising nearly 2.7% to $82.94 a barrel, and Brent oil prices rising by more than 1.7% to $85.17 a barrel.

Analysts say that the decline in US EIA crude oil inventories last week exceeded expectations, and the weaker dollar offset some signs of slowing oil demand, leading to higher oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that for the week ending July 12, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.87 million barrels, a much larger decrease than the analysts' expected reduction of 736,000 barrels, following a decrease of 3.443 million barrels the previous week.

JPMorgan Chase stated that the equilibrium price for US crude oil (supply and demand) is around $70 a barrel. A $60 oil price is too low to stimulate production, which could lead to a significant increase in oil prices to $100 within the next year. If Trump were to return to the White House, he might initiate a new round of exploration and development in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, aiming to achieve a production increase of 3 million barrels per day.

US natural gas futures for August closed down over 6.99%, at $2.035 per million British thermal units, hitting a new low since May; the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell 2.76%, at €31.893 per megawatt-hour; ICE UK natural gas futures rose 2.21% at the end of the session, at 80.76 pence per therm. Analysts say that traders have abandoned the idea that "a hot summer will boost power stations' demand for natural gas and curb the US from significantly increasing supplies."

The US dollar's weakness intensified, reaching a new low since late March, with the yen surging by more than 1%, sparking market speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene again.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.50% to 103.750 points, reaching a new low since late March, with intraday trading ranging from 104.294 to 103.650 points. At 21:41 Beijing time, it refreshed the lowest position since March 21. In recent days, it has successively fallen below the 50-day moving average, the 100-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average, with a cumulative correction of about 2.22% since June 28.The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell to its lowest since the end of May, dropping 0.32% to 1247.74 points, with intraday trading ranging from 1252.60 to 1246.92 points. The US dollar weakened against non-US currencies. The offshore renminbi (CNH) appreciated by 171 points to 7.2720 yuan, with trading throughout the session ranging from 7.2918 to 7.2609 yuan.

Speculation in the market suggests that Japanese authorities may intervene again to buy yen. The US dollar fell 1.35% against the yen to 156.20, reaching a new low since mid-June. Before 14:00 Beijing time, it broke through the earlier sideways consolidation, and by 17:00 Beijing time, it showed a significant continuous downward trend, followed by sustained low-level volatility.

According to Kyodo News, Japan's top foreign exchange official, Masato Kanda, stated that he had "no choice" but to make an "appropriate response" when exchange rates fluctuate excessively.

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies fell. The largest market cap leader, Bitcoin, fell 1.15% to $64,695.00, having touched a high of $66,295 during the session. The second-largest, Ethereum, fell 1.95%, trading at $3,422.00, after reaching a high of $3,532 during the session.

Interest rate cuts, safe-haven sentiment, and central bank gold purchases, three factors, drove gold prices to new highs during the session, but silver prices plummeted nearly 4%.

COMEX August gold futures closed down 0.43% at $2,457.3 per ounce, while COMEX September silver futures closed down 3.4% at $30.39 per ounce.

A weaker US dollar supported precious metal prices, with international gold prices reaching new highs during the session. In the early US stock market session, spot gold rose by 0.6%, hitting a historical high of $2,483.74 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures touched a high of $2,488.35 per ounce, before gold prices accelerated their decline and nearly fell 0.7% to approach $2,450, with a slight rebound at the end of the session but still closing lower.

Before the US stock market session, spot silver edged lower, and during the early session, it plummeted, falling over 3.8% and nearly breaking the $30 threshold, with a slight rebound near the end of the session.

Analysis suggests that the strengthening expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the continuous warming of safe-haven sentiment, and the continuous gold-buying behavior of global central banks provide strong support as the key "catalyst" for the surge in gold prices, with expectations that there is still room for gold prices to rise in the future. With expectations that the Federal Reserve will start an interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, gold prices are expected to fluctuate before heading higher.Most base metals in London's industry declined. The economic indicator "Dr. Copper" closed down by $28, at $9,635 per ton. London aluminum closed down by $4, at $2,402 per ton. London zinc fell by nearly 1.32%, at $2,848 per ton. London nickel closed down by $137, at $16,457 per ton. London tin closed down by $221, at $32,950 per ton. However, London lead closed up by $6, at $2,190 per ton.

International copper night session closed down by 0.43%, Shanghai copper closed down by 0.52%, Shanghai aluminum closed down by 0.35%, Shanghai zinc closed down by 1.60%, Shanghai lead closed up by 0.28%, Shanghai nickel closed down by 1.80%, and Shanghai tin closed down by 1.96%.